Ogiltigt spel-ID: 265999
Reasoning
Genk is onf of the best teams against the spread on home pitch. They have missed to beat the spread 3 times. -1.25 to Kortrijk half loss, -0.5 to Gent and -0 to Anderlecht.
They have only been given the spread of -1.5 in one home game, but consider that they broke -0.75 up till -1.5 with more than 2 goals no less than 7 out of 11 games.
Tomorrow they are facing a poor away team that mot of the times are given lines not good enough to save them. 36.36% of the games they covered the spread. By two scoreless draws to Mechelen and Germinal Beerschot, one upset and a underperforming GBA. One time against Leirse and one time +1.5 to Standard Liege, who are very inconsistent.
Tomorrow STVV are heading to Genk and on Saturday they are travelling to meet Anderlecht, two away games that they will struggle. Genk knows that they need to win this, and so far they have not stumpled under the pressure.
STVV is missing several players for tomorrows game aswell. Suspended Dufer, injured Kotysch, Volders, Antheunis, Evertz, Henkinet and Schoofs. Along with new signings Bram Castro, Tibor Tisza and Mannaseh Ishiaku.
Good news are that two long term injured players are well and one of them Bertjens can maybe take part in the game while Buysens most likely will sit out on the bench for all 90 minutes.
Sidebe did score at home against Gent last game and ruined my bet, he is most likely to only player to watch out for and I think that this bet will fail only if Genk fails to produce. I see them keeping a cleen sheet or letting in a goal that will not effect the outcome of the game.
Consider that STVV lost with +2 goals in 7 out o 11 away games. I think the line might be heading towards 1.75.
Ogiltigt spel-ID: 266051
Reasoning
Mechelen are missing key striker Benteke and backup offensive player Dialiba. Mechelen has a solid defence, proved it last game against Anderlecht by keeping a clean sheet. The problem for the moment is the goalscoring. Onlye two goals last 6 games has been produced and since Benteke is out most of the goals are to be expected from midfield players such as Gorius, Destorme, Wilmet or such. They all produced in the first half of the season but it was some time ago any of them came on the score sheet.
Kortrijk is a poor travelling team, and they ruined my unders last game by turning around a 0-1 to 2-1 on stoppage time despite the fact that they were missing key offensive players. They did all though against a weaker defence on home soil.
This time they still only have Rossini as available natural striker, as Scepovic isn't allowed to play and Capon is unavailable. Another offensive fore that is up for a late fitness test tomorrow is De Beule. If he misses the chances of this going over decreases even more. Keep in mind that Messoudi, two time scorer in the last turn arround victory is not elected in the squad for a reason I can not find.
I have to go with this under as I have trouble seeing either of these teams producing more then one of each. I was close to going on under 2.25 but I will be satisfied with the price on under 2.5.