Citat:
Ursprungligen postat av zabroder
jag fick följande svar
"It's simply a different way of looking at things. You're calling your
difference in ROI as your 'value', while we're calling the extra % chance
something has of happening our 'value'.
The way we price events is to give a specific outcome a % chance of
success, and then compare those %s to the prices available. We then judge
the stake etc according to the % difference that there is between our
judgement and the implied probability of the given odds.
IE, if we think the Seahawks have a 55% chance of winning the superbowl,
then given that odds of 11/10 imply a 48% chance then we'll be tipping
them - as we believe we have an 7% edge on the market.
As a rule we're never tipping anything with a perceived value edge of less
than 3%. So that we think something has a 53% chance of happening, we'll
tip this if odds of 1/1 or better are available.
What this means for you is that one 'tick' worse than the advertised price
should still represent value for you. 20/1 into 16/1 was only a drop of
about 1%. If we've tipped a horse at 20/1 we're saying - roughly - that we
think that horse's true price is at least 12/1 or lower.
The majority of our selections have a perceived value edge of 5-10%."
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Och vad blir då en sänkning från 20/1 till 1/1 ?
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