| 2010-12-28 16:00 | Premier League | Man City vs Aston Villa |
1 |
HT/FT |
1 |
2.400 |
Reasoning
Stats: Villa has been behind at the break in 4 out of 8 away games this season, if you narrow down the losses they have been down 4 out of 6 times.
Man City has only been in front 2 times at home this season, not very good statistics for this bet. But consider the total of the league and they are 4th in the half time table with 7-9-3.
If you look at Man Citys winning games, 7/10 has been with a lead at half time.
I was looking at a handicap bet here at first, but I feel there is more value here. I will try to explain why:
Aston Villa most likely is without A.Young, L.Young and E.Heskey, for Villa to be without A.young their only star player is a massive loss. A teams with as poor defence as Villa (we saw it against Spurs) will also miss L.young at back. CIty will have Toure back and Villa need to put Agbonlahor and/or Delfouneso at front. Yes Agbo has some speed, but without Heskey we will just run in vain at best.
Man City stepped on it against Magpies and punished them for their mistakes at back early in the game. I think they are told to do about the same today. And I rather give it a go at halftime/full time than a handicap which might be broken by a late goal when Man City relax in a comofortable 2-0 lead or so.
Tevez, Silva, Balotelli, Milner, Johnson all pose a lethal threat and I really cant see Villa close to a point today. Hopefully former Villa captain Barry and player Milner is really fired up for this game.