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Reasoning Two teams with great offensive power and 75% of Arsenals home games went over and 77.78% of Chelseas away games went over. Both teams have had some troubles keeping clean sheets lately and even if Chelsea only conceded 12 goals so far 7 of them came the last 5 games. At the same time Arsenal has to many flaws at back to keap Chelsea out and I see value in laying 0-0 at this odds. |
Domaren höll en bra nivå i halvtid, snackade istället för att dela ut gula kort. Men när RVP och Kalou karatesparkar helt i onödan så har vi helt plötsligt 3 varningar i HT. Inte kul alls, hoppas att killarna inte flippar i andra och nöjer sig med max 2 gula.
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sweeep swooop sweeep!
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Ser ut som att du har vänt trenden, snyggt :)
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Tackar för kort-spelet :)
OT: Suger lite att inte få se 3D-TV när man har allt utom den fjantiga boxen... |
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Reasoning Blackburn is team in deep trouble, 3 losses in 5 last fixtures and 1-1 against West Ham at home was far from fair in my opinion. Today new manager or atleast new temporary manager Kean will select from these gentelmen: Robinson, Salgado, Hanley, Nelsen, Givet, Olsson, Dunn, Emerton, Pedersen, Kalinic, MB Diouf, Bunn, Samba, EH Diouf, Linganzi, Doran, Benjani, Hoilett, Morris, Lowe. Samba will be tested late and even if he makes it he is probably not 100% fit and I am not sure if that would to be considered a plus to have him on the pitch in that case. Phil Jones, Jason Roberts, Vince Grella, Steven Nzonzi and Keith Andrews are not available for this match and if Samba doesn't make it Blackburn will miss two important players in the central line along with Roberts up front they feel mediocre at best. WBA is a side who has done well this season, at home they are a decent side with 4-2-2 10-11 but they seem to take points from the teams below or around them in the table. They will miss Chris Brunt due to a suspension, it will hurt their creativity but I feel there is more of it at the home side. And Blackburn is a side close to chaos, I think WBA fancies their chances here. |
Reasoning Stats: Villa has been behind at the break in 4 out of 8 away games this season, if you narrow down the losses they have been down 4 out of 6 times. Man City has only been in front 2 times at home this season, not very good statistics for this bet. But consider the total of the league and they are 4th in the half time table with 7-9-3. If you look at Man Citys winning games, 7/10 has been with a lead at half time. I was looking at a handicap bet here at first, but I feel there is more value here. I will try to explain why: Aston Villa most likely is without A.Young, L.Young and E.Heskey, for Villa to be without A.young their only star player is a massive loss. A teams with as poor defence as Villa (we saw it against Spurs) will also miss L.young at back. CIty will have Toure back and Villa need to put Agbonlahor and/or Delfouneso at front. Yes Agbo has some speed, but without Heskey we will just run in vain at best. Man City stepped on it against Magpies and punished them for their mistakes at back early in the game. I think they are told to do about the same today. And I rather give it a go at halftime/full time than a handicap which might be broken by a late goal when Man City relax in a comofortable 2-0 lead or so. Tevez, Silva, Balotelli, Milner, Johnson all pose a lethal threat and I really cant see Villa close to a point today. Hopefully former Villa captain Barry and player Milner is really fired up for this game. |
Sunderland is a very hard team to score against, they keep a clean sheet 47% of the games they play and 6/9 games at home they had their oponents shut out. Teams like City, Man U and Arsenal struggled at the Stadium of Light, at the same time they only managed to score 3 goals once this season. Against Chelsea away strange enough. Today Sunderland will welcome back Danny Welbeck and Lee Cattermole to the squad, Cattermole is vital for Sunderlands defence now that they will miss Mensah, Turner and Bramble just returning after an injury. Sunderland has a very good goali in Gordon and a defence/midfield with many hard working characters. At front Gyan, Welbeck and Bent is capable of scoring, but I feel that they are not as sharp as you would expect. Maybe I am wrong here looking at the oppostion which clearly have had troubles keeping the ball out, but at the same time showing strenght in front of their opponents goal. Blackpool captain Adams and topscorer Harewood is sidelined and much of their strenght at front stays at the side of the pitch. This game is also a game important to both teams, Sunderland close to that 7th and last UEFA spot and Pool wouldn't want to lose points to the teams in behind. I think the goal line is likely to be set on 50% on each side and I am happy to take the side priced at 2.20. |
2-1 och plus idag, smutt.
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Reasoning S:t Mirren is without striker Gareth Wardlaw due to a suspention. Last game S:t mirren beat Inverness and then Craig Dargo took Wardlaws place up front with Michael Higdon. Saints boss Lennon said he might rest Dargo and in that case Paul McQuade could make his debut, or Paul McGowan could be moved up front. And Lee Mair, Garry Brady, Steven Robb, Nick Hegarty and Hugh Murray are all still missing. S:t Mirren is up for some major changes in their team and Hearts only have one absent player, a big one yes (Skacel). But scottish national player Lee Wallace is back from injury and ready to take part in some way. Hearts ended their winning streak last game after a draw at home to Inverness, a result not very flattering. Today is a perfect day to get back to winning. And when odds have increased so much during they day I will have a go. |
Liverpool is starting the best lineup in a long time: Liverpool: Reina, Johnson, Konchesky, Skrtel, Kyrgiakos, Lucas, Meireles, Gerrard, Kuyt, Torres, Ngog. Only Charragher and Joe Cole is really missing from this lineup if you don't count in Agger who is injuerd all the time. Wolves on the other hand are missing CaptainKarl Henry, David Jones och Adlene Guedioura that makes 3/4 of the midfield starters. Jody Craddock is also long time absent. Wolves problem has been that they try to play footbal, they are not good enough. If they defend with ten men they might be able to hold the Reds to a draw in halftime. Liverpool at anfield is a tough task for many teams, they have been in front 3/4 last home games and won all 4. Wolves has been behind in 4/5 last away losses. I expect liverpool to take secure win here, and I expect them to command from start. |
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1-1 idag och plus. Även 2-1 och plus i andra dagboken. 3-2 totalt.
Sällan jag spelar på Liverpool, trodde verkligen det var ett bra spel idag. Fy fan vad det svider i hjärtat.. och plånkan blev inte tjockare.. |
Dags att sumera projektet "Egna Ben" som skulle löpa med max 3 spel om dagen från och med i slutet av nobvember till och med slutet av december. Kommer inte lägga några fler spel detta år utanför Belgien så här kommer statistiken:
Lagda spel: 58 Vunna spel: 34 Förlorade spel: 24 Träffprocent: 58.62% Satsade Units: 58 Unitnetto: +8.96 ROI: 115.45% Toppnotering: +11.1 Sporter: Fotboll: 33-23 - 115.82% Europa: 9-4 125.08% England: 8-4 134.33% Tyskland: 6-5 110.36% Frankrike: 3-6 73.11% Italien: 2-3 81% Spanien: 3-1 150% Skottland: 1-0 214% Internationals: 1-0 157% Innebandy-VM: 1-1 - 105% Speltyp: Hemmalag: 17-13 112.17% Bortalag: 5-5 109.5% Över: 5-2 125.43% Under: 3-1 146.5% AH- : 10-5 132.33% AH+ : 1-3 58.75% Bookings: 2-0 1.90% Corners: 1-0 185% Both Teams to Score YES: 0-1 0% Home Team or Correct Score: 1-0 172% Använda Bookies: Pinnacle: 17 Canbet: 10 Bet365: 9 Paf: 6 Expekt: 4 Bwin: 2 Betsafe: 2 Ladbrokes: 2 Betfair: 2 Unibet: 2 Betfred: 1 |
I like, mycket mer grönt än rött här ser jag :thumbup:
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Snyggt!
Bara att fortsätta såhär! |
Bra jobbat Robin
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trevligt robin, hoppas du fortsätter när det nya året träder fram :)
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Well done, Robinho!
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Starkt jobbat,är inte överraskad av statsen :cheers:
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Tackar för alla fina ord, Januari kommer att följa i samma spår med en liten utökning av mängden spel jag tillåter mig själv att lägga.
Kommer att tillåta mig att lägga Max 3 sides och 3 totaler på en speldag. Detta för att jag har känt att jag fått välja bort spel jag gillar. Vi får utvärdera efter januari helt enkelt! |
varför inte bara köra max 6 spel? Ifall du hittar värde i 5 totaler så vore de ju dumt att låta bli att spela alla tycker jag.
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Sämre siffror kanske men inte mindre i plånboken. Värde är värde och ska spelas. Avstå ett spel för att den spelas på fel dag (kvoten är fylld) kan aldrig vara rätt väg att gå. :)
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Men jag är medveten om att omsättning kommer ge mer nettounit så länge man spelar med EV+ och det är ju där skon klämmer. Ingen kan ju med säkerhet säga att ett spel är EV+, man kan bara göra kvalitativa gissningar som är mer eller mindre korrekt. Men för varje spel du lägger per dag desto närmar EV+/1 är jag tämligen säker på att du kommer i genomsnitt. Det bör vara nära omöjligt att cappa ett spel per match med EV+ alltså håller mitt resonemang i teorin. Problematiken hos mig har varit att jag lagt för många spel, impulsivt och säkerligen därav haft fler spel med EV- än när jag gör på detta vis. Varken du eller jag kan nog svara på när min balans är nådd, men jag tänker successivt höja mina egna "limits" som jag satt på mig själv för att se om jag har disciplin nog att cappa obegränsat med EV+ spel varje dag eller om jag helt enkelt måste ha ett tak där jag håller mig själv inom. Sedan så om du kikar på mina marknader i detta sheet så är det ju inte alls omöjligt att få in både 5 och 10k på de flesta av mina pks i detta sheet. +8.96u skulle såldes kunna vara både 44800 eller 89600 och det är iaf siffror som jag är helt nöjd med. Lägg till mitt sheet i Belgien och Holland så är det ytterliggare +8.26u. Så att man behöver lira 3000 spel om året är bullshit. |
Det är kul att det gått bra för dig. Hellre +15% i ROI än +3% med 5 gånger så många spel, trots att det ger samma vinst om du frågar mig :)
Gott nytt spelår! |
Reasoning Utd away record may be far from fair when backing this play, but I am not backing the stats here. I am backing the fact that Fergie always gets results at the end. He lost 2 points to Brum and I think that is something that he is angry with. WBA got hammered by Blackburn and misses long time injured Olsson, Jara and Tamas at the back. They allready are a side which concedes a lot. One clean sheet all season and 3 losses with +2 in the last 6 games. I expect Utd to win this game and it can easily be a 2-0 or bigger win. |
Reasoning With Wolves performance at anfield fresh in mind I can't oversee the fact that Hammers priced @ any team arround 2.00 is wrong. Even if they have played decent at the offensive half they still leave a lot to wish for at back. And if Wolves perform as they did agains The Reds I think they could get a result here. |
Reasoning Leicester has a lot of work to do and pressure is on Svennis for a result here. Away record of 2-1-9 is not something they want to brag about. Hull on the other hand is on form, winning for and drawing 4 in the last 8 games. I do think that Hulls price is too short, and when the price for draw is the biggest one it can often be a good bet. Hull drops points in 63% of their home games, 37 of them has ended with a draw. I usually do not punt draws, but I like this one and I need to give it a go. |
1-2 idag och öppnar nya spelåret med en förlustdag.
Men vad gör det när världens finaste klubb LIVERPOOL FC äntligen har lite medgång, spelar bra fotboll och vänder matchen mot Bolton! Synd att man lyssnade på alla haters i chatten om att priset på Liverpool var för dåligt, visste att de skulle vinna idag. You never walk alone! |
Andra halvlek var en fröjd att se :claps::yes:
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Reasoning Hosts Granada with one game in hand, looking for a victory to put them back in playoff placement. They are hosting Alcorcon, the team that shocked the world by eliminating Real Madrid in Copa del Rey a couple of years ago. Granada has a strong record at home, 5-2-1 21-6, in fact they are one of the best scoring teams at home this season in the segunda. The guests Alcorcon on the other hand is a very poor travelling team with 0-2-6 5-16. Granada has according to http://www.marca.com/2011/01/01/futb...293887546.html some doubt about top scorer Geijo, he received a muscular injury before the break and may not be able to start. Other than that they will miss; Ighalo who recently joined the club, Mainz and Abel Gomez. All though it is much worse for Alcorcon missing three regulars on the midfield; Sergio Mora, Samuel and Ruben Sanz. They have failed to recover from injuries in time for this fixture. Also, left back Sanchez will be missing. This match is vital for both teams, Granade to get back into the playoff spot and Alcorcon to leap ahead in the relegation race. I think Granada is the clear favourite here and the price is too good, even if they miss Geijo they should be able to handle a poor side as Alcorcon that is forced to make several changes in their defensive and midfiled lines. |
Reasoning Both teams should be eager to play, lots of games has been postponed due to bad weather in Scotland since the end of November. Ayr Utd is a top team chasing playoff, they hold a playoff spot but need to keep thier pace to not see it slip out of their hand. Ayr missing defender Tiffoney, rotation midfielder Donnoly. Dumbarton is still looking for first away win this season. They currently hold the last spot in the league. They are missing one of their top strikers (Gilhaney), they miss regular defender Gordon and they have doubt on another regular defender (Grisholm). Trialist Pat Walker who scored on his debut is available so as Carcary who is back from injury. I feel the price is to high for teams in opposite sides of the table, home field advantage and injury problems that shouldnt give an edge to either team besides tha fact that a weaker team should miss them more. A bit of a speculative bet here maybe, but 5-1-1 and Ayr is used to handle and brush of weaker teams. › Ayr United playing against poor teams the current season. [won 4/6] [66.67%] [1*] › Ayr United playing against awayteams with average elo rating the current season. [won 5/7] [71.43%] [2*] › Ayr United playing in weekend at home the current season. [won 5/7] [71.43%] [2*] › Ayr United playing against defensively poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. [won 9/15] [60.00%] [1*] › Ayr United playing against offensively poor awayteams the last 3 seasons. [won 5/8] [62.50%] [1*] › Dumbarton playing against good teams the current season. [lost 5/7] [71.43%] [2*] › Dumbarton playing against offensively good teams the current season. [lost 7/10] [70.00%] [2*] › Dumbarton playing against teams with good form the last 6 matches the current season. [lost 5/6] [83.33%] [3*] › Dumbarton playing against teams with average elo rating the current season. [lost 9/13] [69.23%] [1*] › Dumbarton playing against hometeams with average elo rating the current season. [lost 6/7] [85.71%] [3*] › Dumbarton playing in weekend the current season. [lost 9/13] [69.23%] [1*] › Dumbarton playing in weekend at away the current season. [lost 6/7] [85.71%] [3* |
Kommer det någon rek på Ayr eller är det bara att hålla tummarna för att du har ett superlir? ;)
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